Авторы: 147 А Б В Г Д Е З И Й К Л М Н О П Р С Т У Ф Х Ц Ч Ш Щ Э Ю Я

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Contents

List of figures x

List of tables xiii

Preface xiv

Acknowledgements xvii

1 Understanding modern macroeconomics 1

1.1 Macroeconomic issues and ideas 1

1.2 The role of economic theory and controversy 3

1.3 Objectives, instruments and the role of government 7

1.4 The Great Depression 9

1.5 Keynes and the birth of macroeconomics 13

1.6 The rise and fall of the Keynesian consensus 15

1.7 Theoretical schizophrenia and the neoclassical synthesis 21

1.8 Schools of thought in macroeconomics after Keynes 24

1.9 The new political macroeconomics 29

1.10 The renaissance of economic growth research 32

2 Keynes v. the ‘old’ classical model 36

2.1 Introduction 36

2.2 Classical macroeconomics 37

2.3 Employment and output determination 38

2.4 Say’s Law 45

2.5 The quantity theory of money 50

2.6 Keynes’s General Theory 54

2.7 Interpreting the General Theory 57

2.8 Keynes’s main propositions 58

2.9 Keynes’s analysis of the labour market 65

2.10 Keynes’s rejection of Say’s Law 69

2.11 Keynes and the quantity theory of money 69

2.12 Three important interpretations of Keynes 70

2.13 The ‘new’ Keynes scholarship 75

2.14 Causes and consequences of the Great Depression 76

2.15 How to pay for the war 82

2.16 Keynes and international macroeconomics 83

2.17 Keynes’s legacy and the classical revival 85

Interview with Robert Skidelsky 91

3 The orthodox Keynesian school 101

3.1 Introduction 101

3.2 The orthodox Keynesian school 102

3.3 The IS–LM model for a closed economy 102

3.4 Underemployment equilibrium in the Keynesian model 114

3.5 The IS–LM model for an open economy 123

3.6 The Phillips curve and orthodox Keynesian economics 135

3.7 The central propositions of orthodox Keynesian economics 144

Interview with James Tobin 148

4 The orthodox monetarist school 163

4.1 Introduction 163

4.2 The quantity theory of money approach 165

4.3 The expectations-augmented Phillips curve analysis 174

4.4 The monetary approach to balance of payments theory and

exchange rate determination 187

4.5 The orthodox monetarist school and stabilization policy 192

Interview with Milton Friedman 198

5 The new classical school 219

5.1 Introduction 219

5.2 The influence of Robert E. Lucas Jr 220

5.3 The structure of new classical models 223

5.4 Equilibrium business cycle theory 236

5.5 The policy implications of the new classical approach 242

5.6 An assessment 267

Interview with Robert E. Lucas Jr 272

6 The real business cycle school 294

6.1 Introduction: the demise of new classical macroeconomics

mark I 294

6.2 The transition from monetary to real equilibrium business

cycle theory 295

6.3 Real business cycle theory in historical perspective 297

6.4 Cycles versus random walks 300

6.5 Supply-side shocks 303

6.6 Business cycles: main features and stylized facts 304

6.7 Real business cycle theory 307

6.8 The structure of a real business cycle model 309

6.9 Technology shocks 313

6.10 A real business cycle aggregate demand and supply model 315

6.11 Calibrating the model 320

6.12 Real business cycle theory and the neutrality of money 322

6.13 Measuring technology shocks: the Solow residual 325

6.14 Real business cycle theory and the stylized facts 326

6.15 The policy implications of real business cycle theory 330

6.16 Criticisms of real business cycle theory 332

6.17 Great Depressions: a real business cycle view 336

6.18 An assessment 338

Interview with Edward C. Prescott 344

7 The new Keynesian school 357

7.1 The fall and rise of Keynesian economics 357

7.2 A Keynesian resurgence 358

7.3 New Keynesian economics 361

7.4 Core propositions and features of new Keynesian economics 363

7.5 Nominal rigidities 366

7.6 Dornbusch’s overshooting model 376

7.7 Real rigidities 378

7.8 New Keynesian business cycle theory 396

7.9 Hysteresis and the NAIRU 401

7.10 New Keynesian economics and the stylized facts 408

7.11 Policy implications 409

7.12 Keynesian economics without the LM curve 423

7.13 Criticisms of new Keynesian economics 428

7.14 An assessment of new Keynesian economics 431

Interview with N. Gregory Mankiw 433

8 The Post Keynesian school 451

8.1 Introduction 451

8.2 The significance of the principle of effective demand 453

8.3 Taxonomy 454

8.4 Keynes’s taxonomic attack on Say’s Law 455

8.5 Can relative price changes induce D2 to fill the gap? 457

8.6 Investment spending, liquidity, and the non-neutrality of

money axiom 459

8.7 What type of an economic system is ‘irrational’ enough to use

money contracts? 461

8.8 Information, decisions and uncertainty 463

8.9 Classifying decision-making environments 464

8.10 Keynesian uncertainty, money and explicit money contracts 468

8.11 Conclusions 472

9 The Austrian school 474

Roger W. Garrison

9.1 The Mengerian vision 474

9.2 The intertemporal structure of capital 475

9.3 Saving and economic growth 479

9.4 The saving–investment nexus 482

9.5 The market for loanable funds 489

9.6 Full employment and the production possibilities frontier 492

9.7 The capital-based macroeconomic framework 496

9.8 Saving-induced capital restructuring 498

9.9 Keynes’s paradox of thrift revisited 501

9.10 The Austrian theory of the business cycle 503

9.11 A Keynesian downturn in the Austrian framework 509

9.12 Inflation and deflation in the Austrian theory 513

9.13 Policy and reform 515

10 The new political macroeconomics 517

10.1 Introduction: political distortions and macroeconomic

performance 517

10.2 Political influences on policy choice 518

10.3 The role of government 521

10.4 Politicians and stabilization policy 523

10.5 Alternative approaches to the ‘political business cycle’: an

overview 525

10.6 The Nordhaus opportunistic model 526

10.7 The Hibbs partisan model 532

10.8 The decline and renaissance of opportunistic and partisan

models 535

10.9 Rational political business cycles 537

10.10 Rational partisan theory 538

10.11 Opportunistic and partisan behaviour: a synthesis 545

10.12 Politics, time inconsistency, credibility and reputation 546

10.13 Policy implications of politico-economic models: an

independent central bank? 549

10.14 The political economy of debt and deficits 554

10.15 Political and economic instability: are they related? 555

10.16 The political economy of economic growth 556

10.17 Political barriers to economic growth 562

10.18 The size of nations 564

10.19 Conclusion 565

Interview with Alberto Alesina 567

11 The renaissance of economic growth research 579

11.1 Introduction 579

11.2 The ‘Great Divergence’ 580

11.3 In praise of economic history 584

11.4 Back to the long run 585

11.5 Why is economic growth so important? 589

11.6 Modern economic growth in historical perspective 593

11.7 The stylized facts of growth 595

11.8 Proximate v. fundamental sources of growth 596

11.9 The Harrod–Domar model 598

11.10 The Solow neoclassical growth model 602

11.11 Accounting for the sources of economic growth 612

11.12 The convergence debate 614

11.13 Beyond the Solow model 622

11.14 Endogenous growth: constant returns to capital accumulation 625

11.15 Endogenous growth: the economics of ideas 627

11.16 An augmented Solow model: a neoclassical revival? 632

11.17 Focusing on the fundamental causes of growth 633

11.18 Institutions and economic growth 635

11.19 Trade and economic growth 647

11.20 Geography and growth 652

11.21 Growth in history: in search of a unified theory 654

11.22 The ideal conditions for growth and development:

rediscovering old truths 657

Interview with Robert M. Solow 660

Interview with Paul M. Romer 673

12 Conclusions and reflections 695

12.1 Introduction 695

12.2 Twentieth-century developments in macroeconomics:

evolution or revolution? 696

12.3 Is there a consensus on key macroeconomic issues? 703

Bibliography 708

Author index 791

Subject index 803

Figures

1.1 Unemployment in the US and UK economies over the course

of the twentieth century 2

1.2 Inflation in the US and UK economies over the course of the

twentieth century 3

2.1 The aggregate production function (a) and the marginal

product of labour (b) 40

2.2 Output and employment determination in the classical model 43

2.3 The classical interest rate mechanism and Say’s Law 48

2.4 The determination of the price level in the classical model 53

2.5 The determination of output and employment 64

2.6 Keynes and involuntary unemployment 67

2.7 Aggregate demand failure in the US economy, 1929–33 78

3.1 Demand for speculative balances 105

3.2 The generalized IS–LM model 105

3.3 Expansionary fiscal policy 107

3.4 Expansionary monetary policy 108

3.5 The government budget constraint and bond-financed fiscal

expansion 111

3.6 The general case with the Keynes effect 115

3.7 The liquidity trap case 117

3.8 The interest-inelastic investment case 119

3.9 The Mundell–Fleming/Keynesian model 127

3.10 Fiscal expansion under imperfect capital mobility 128

3.11 Monetary expansion under imperfect capital mobility 129

3.12 Fiscal expansion under (a) and (b) imperfect and (c) perfect

capital mobility 131

3.13 Monetary expansion under (a) imperfect and (b) perfect

capital mobility 134

3.14 The Phillips curve 136

3.15 The relationship between wage change and excess demand for

labour 138

3.16 The relationship between excess demand for labour and

unemployment 139

3.17 The relationship between excess demand for labour, vacancy

and unemployment rates 141

3.18 The link between the Keynesian model and wage and price

inflation 143

4.1 The evolution of orthodox monetarism 164

4.2 The classical case 172

4.3 The Keynesian case 172

4.4 The expectations-augmented Phillips curve 177

4.5 The trade-off between inflation and unemployment 179

4.6 The output–employment costs of reducing inflation 183

5.1 The structure of new classical models 224

5.2 The welfare implications of equilibrium in a competitive

market 231

5.3 The effects of anticipated and unanticipated changes in the

money supply on the level of output and the price level 243

5.4 Consistent and optimal equilibrium 253

5.5 Game played between the monetary authorities and wage

negotiators 255

5.6 The relationship between average inflation and central bank

independence 261

5.7 The evolution of new classical macroeconomics 269

6.1 The path of output in the ‘trend-reverting’ case 302

6.2 The path of output where shocks have a permanent influence 302

6.3 Output and employment fluctuations due to a technology

shock 314

6.4 The IS–LM model with flexible prices 315

6.5 The real business cycle aggregate demand and supply model 316

6.6 The impact of a technology shock 318

6.7 The impact of a government expenditure shock 319

6.8 The impact of temporary and permanent technology shocks in

the real business cycle model 320

6.9 The annual growth rates of technology and output in the USA,

1955–85 327

6.10 Supply shocks and the price level 329

7.1 Nominal wage contracts, rational expectations and monetary

policy 368

7.2 Price adjustment under monopolistic competition 373

7.3 Menu costs v. price adjustment 374

7.4 Near rationality 375

7.5 The efficiency wage and the Solow condition 386

7.6 Involuntary unemployment in the efficiency wage model 387

7.7 The shirking model 391

7.8 The impact of an aggregate demand shock in the new

Keynesian model 397

7.9 The risk-based aggregate supply curve 400

7.10 Standardized unemployment rates for North America (USA

and Canada) and OECD Europe, 1972–98 402

7.11 The ‘natural rate’ view of the relationship between actual

unemployment and equilibrium unemployment 404

7.12 The hysteresis view of a ‘time-varying’ NAIRU 406

7.13 Bank of England inflation report fan chart for February 2004:

forecast of CPI inflation at constant nominal interest rates of

4.0 per cent 417

7.14 UK inflation and inflation expectations, October 1991–

October 2003 418

7.15 Derivation of the AD curve 425

7.16 Adjusting to long-run equilibrium in the AD–IA model 427

9.1 The intertemporal structure of production 476

9.2 A possible temporal pattern of consumable output 480

9.3 Intertemporal capital restructuring 481

9.4 Time discount and derived demand 488

9.5 The loanable funds market 490

9.6 The production possibilities frontier 495

9.7 A capital-based macroeconomic framework 496

9.8 Saving-induced economic growth 498

9.9 A saving-induced recession 502

9.10 A policy-induced boom and bust 505

9.11 An investment-led collapse into recession 511

10.1 Influences on policy choice 520

10.2 A politico-economic model 524

10.3 The Nordhaus political business cycle model 529

10.4 The long-run solution in the Nordhaus model 530

10.5 The Hibbs partisan model 533

10.6 How inequality may adversely affect growth 561

11.1 The impact on per capita income of differential growth rates 591

11.2 The great divergence 591

11.3 The neoclassical aggregate production function 605

11.4 The Solow growth model 608

11.5 Technological progress 610

11.6 Transition dynamics 618

11.7 Conditional convergence 619

11.8 Proximate and fundamental sources of growth 634

Tables

1.1 The Great Depression 12

1.2 Growth of per capita GDP, world and major regions, 1820–

1998 18

1.3 Growth rates (GDP), 1820–1998 18

1.4 Unemployment rates, 1964–2002 19

1.5 Inflation rates, 1964–2002 20

2.1 US GDP, prices and unemployment: 1929–33 78

2.2 Keynes and the international economic system, 1944 85

2.3 Most-cited macroeconomists: 1920–30 86

2.4 Most-cited macroeconomists: 1931–5 86

2.5 Most-cited macroeconomists: 1936–9 87

2.6 Most-cited macroeconomists: 1940–44 87

5.1 Citation counts: 1966–97 221

5.2 Central bank independence and economic performance 260

6.1 The ‘stylized facts’ of the business cycle 306

7.1 NAIRU estimates for the G7 countries and the euro area 402

7.2 Evidence on reasons for price stickiness 428

10.1 Politico-economic models of aggregate fluctuations 526

10.2 Partisan influence on macroeconomic outcomes, USA, 1948–

2001 534

10.3 Rates of growth of GDP in real terms 543

10.4 Alternative politico-economic models 547

10.5 Selected indicators of governance: 20 sub-Saharan African

countries 559

11.1 Level and rate of growth of GDP per capita: world and major

regions, 0–1998 AD 581

11.2 Three indicators of living standards: 40 countries 583

11.3 The cumulative impact of differential growth rates 590

11.4 A tale of two Koreas 639

11.5 Growth rates of per capita GDP (%): the two Koreas 640

12.1 Some areas of agreement and disagreement in macroeconomics 702